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Groundwater study to predict tremors
Tribune News Service

Shimla, May 19
Hydro-geologist Ritesh Arya, who earned a place in the Guinness Book
of Records for striking groundwater at the highest elevation in the
cold deserts of Ladakh, maintains that fluctuations in the level and
chemical composition of ground water resources could be used for
predicting earthquakes in the Himalayan region.

Having studied the "little-understood" mountain hydrogeology in depth
and gained rare experience while carrying out ground water
explorations in the high-altitude areas of the Himalayas for the past
almost two decades, he had gathered enough knowledge about the Paleo-
channels in the mountains in various hydrostratigraphic zones which
could be used for the purpose, he told The Tribune here. Changes in
ground water are an important scientific indicator for understanding
plate movements and as a precursor to earthquakes in the Himalayan
region.

Giving details of the study being carried out in collaboration with
Dr D.K. Chaddha under the banner of "Global Groundwater Solutions",
he said that four piezometre-based Paleo-seismic stations had been
set up at Parwanoo, Darlaghat, Sabathu and Dharamsala to monitor
changes in ground water levels for the purpose. The site of the first
three stations was important as the next tectonic event was expected
in the Shivaliks along the path of the old Saraswati river and the
present Ghaggar river . The foothill areas like Parwanoo, Pinjore and
Panchkula fell into the danger zone. It was important to ensure that
structures constructed in the region were earthquake-resistant. The
project had been funded by the Union Ministry of Science and
Technology.

He said data collected from the borewells was being seriously studied
and reinterpreted for predicting earthquakes and to understand the
global warming phenomenon. During the earthquake at Latur there was a
surge in the level of ground water several hours before the event
occurred. It had been observed that the water level either increases
or decreases sharply before a tremor hits an area. Further, its
chemical composition is also altered due to an increase in Radon
gases because of excessive of radioactivity before and after the
event. These along with the natural springs and geysers (hot springs)
like the ones at Manikaran and Tattapani are important precursors of
geothermic activity which precedes an earthquake.

Arya underlined the need for extensive Paleo-tectonic studies not
only for the exploration of ground water but also understating the
complex phenomenon like global warming and the increasing incidence
of flash floods in the region.